As we approach the extended, extended, and extended deadline for Brexit, this may be a good time to collect our thoughts and summarise where we now stand – which I’m sure we all agree, is at a very different place from where we started in the summer of 2016.
With a majority Conservative government, and Boris Johnson leading the party, Brexit in some form or another seems now to be an outright certainty.
There now looks to be more posturing again from Boris Johnson, the Brexit committee, and the EU, as Macron, the French president, looks to continue in his endeavour to exert greater influence on the EU and on the global stage.
I’m confident, based on previous events that Parliament and Brussels will, at any 11th hour, whenever it may be, work together to find a way to avoid a cliff-edge, lose-lose outcome. For this reason, I’m staying aware of current events and helping my clients who may be particularly affected. My main current focus is to look past Brexit to the future economy and global market outlook.
For those of you looking to glean my latest thoughts, I expect us to actually Brexit towards the end of 2020, when we will move into a transitional period whilst we negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world. It will take a year or so to get the majority of deals done, and these deals will be better than WTO but won’t be as good as our existing arrangements as a full member of the EU. And, rather than price or tariff risk, the larger risk will come from the time it takes to reorganise logistics associated with trade.
The location of imports will change and the administrative side of trade, which can be complicated and exhaustive and has a strong chance of seeing supply chain issues throughout the economy, for a short period of time following our exit from the EU, this could place the UK in a more competitive position on a global scale due to its independence and ability to move and adapt more than before.
If you would like to talk more specifically about your financial situation as we move into a post-Brexit UK, and to see if better decisions could be made given some of the uncertainty, then please feel free to get in touch directly. An adviser can take the time to understand your situation and flag areas to discuss more should you wish to do so.